According to ReadWrite, Google has announced a major update to its advertising policy that will allow certain prediction markets to run ads in the United States. The change takes effect on a very specific date: January 21, 2026. The permission is narrowly limited to two types of federally regulated entities: companies approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as Designated Contract Markets, and brokerages authorized by the National Futures Association to access those markets. Beyond that regulatory hurdle, every advertiser must also apply for and receive a direct certification from Google itself. All ads and landing pages must comply with local laws and Google’s own policies, with the English version of the policy being the enforceable standard.
Why This Matters Now
So, why is Google doing this, and why set the date nearly two years out? Here’s the thing: prediction markets, where you can trade contracts on events like election outcomes or economic data, have been in a legal and advertising gray area for ages. They’re not quite gambling, not quite traditional finance. By restricting ads to only the most heavily regulated players—the CFTC-regulated exchanges—Google is trying to carve out a “legitimate” financial product category separate from sports betting or casino games. That two-year runway? It’s basically a buffer. It gives platforms time to get their regulatory ducks in a row and gives Google time to build out its certification and enforcement apparatus. They don’t want a messy launch.
The Bigger Picture for Big Tech
This isn’t happening in a vacuum. Look at Google’s recent moves with its Gambling and Games policy. They just reclassified sweepstakes casinos, pulling them out of the “social games” bucket. It seems like the entire “real-money event” landscape is getting a serious, granular review from the ad giant. They’re drawing lines in the sand with a much finer pen. Is this a sign that prediction markets are going mainstream? Or is it just Google covering its legal bases as these markets gain traction? Probably a bit of both. By creating this highly gated policy, they get to tap into a new, potentially lucrative ad revenue stream while maintaining a fortress of compliance. It’s a classic Big Tech move: cautious, bureaucratic, and designed to minimize risk above all else.
What It Means for Traders and Platforms
For the average person, don’t expect to see ads for your favorite crypto-based prediction site. This policy is for the big, institutional-grade operators. Think regulated futures exchanges dabbling in event contracts, not decentralized apps. For those eligible platforms, this is a huge deal. Google Ads is the oxygen of the online customer acquisition world. Being able to use it legally could dramatically lower their cost to find users and could legitimize them in the eyes of a skeptical public. But that certification process is the wild card. How onerous will Google make it? What kind of ongoing monitoring will there be? The policy opens a door, but Google still holds the keys and can change the locks anytime. It’s a tentative, calculated endorsement, not a full-throated welcome.
