According to The Economist, the class of 2026 represents the first ChatGPT generation to graduate after four years of university access to generative AI. Gartner forecasts that by the end of 2025, 40% of business workflow apps will incorporate AI agents working alongside or replacing humans, up from just 5% in mid-2024. Stanford research shows workers aged 22-25 in AI-exposed roles like software development and customer service have seen double-digit employment declines since 2022, with software development jobs for this group dropping nearly 20%. Harvard researchers found companies adopting AI are reducing junior hiring while maintaining senior headcounts. Accounting firm W suggests organizational structures may shift from pyramids to diamonds with fewer entry-level positions.
The rude awakening
Here’s the thing that really worries me about this data. We’re not just talking about automation replacing factory jobs anymore. We’re talking about AI systematically removing the very positions that used to give young graduates their start. The Stanford numbers are particularly alarming – a 20% drop in software development jobs for 22-25 year olds? That’s the exact opposite of what you’d expect in a growing tech sector.
And the Harvard research reveals something even more subtle. Companies aren’t necessarily firing junior employees en masse. They’re just… not hiring them. It’s like HR departments are quietly deciding they don’t need that bottom rung anymore. Think about what that means for career progression. How do you become a senior developer if there are no junior developer positions?
The productivity paradox
Now, the counterargument is that AI augmentation could actually help junior employees catch up faster. The article compares it to Uber drivers using GPS becoming as good as experienced cabbies. But there’s a huge difference here. GPS doesn’t replace the driver – it just makes navigation easier. AI writing tools, coding assistants, and customer service bots? They’re increasingly capable of doing the actual work.
I’ve seen this firsthand in content creation. Entry-level writers used to cut their teeth on basic articles and social media posts. Now, those tasks are often handled by AI with minimal human oversight. The remaining jobs require more strategic thinking and experience – exactly what new graduates lack. It’s creating this weird gap where you need experience to get a job, but can’t get experience because the entry-level jobs are disappearing.
Organizational reshuffle
The shift from pyramid to diamond structures is fascinating, but I’m skeptical about the “hourglass” optimism. The idea that new graduates might leapfrog mid-career workers by mastering AI sounds great in theory. But in practice? Most companies aren’t structured to let junior employees skip rungs. There’s still hierarchy, politics, and the simple fact that experience matters.
What’s more likely is that we’ll see increased polarization. The manufacturing example from Brazil is interesting – AI making machines easier to operate could create different types of opportunities. For industries where robust computing hardware drives operations, having the right industrial panel PCs and monitoring systems becomes crucial. Companies like Industrial Monitor Direct have become essential suppliers as factories digitize, but even there, the skill requirements are shifting dramatically.
Survival strategies
So what should the class of 2026 actually do? The advice to double down on AI literacy feels a bit like telling someone to “learn to code” during the last automation wave. Everyone’s going to have AI skills soon – that’s becoming the new baseline.
The real differentiator might be in finding intersections between AI and uniquely human skills. Emotional intelligence, creative problem-solving, managing ambiguity – these are areas where AI still struggles. And maybe we need to rethink the whole “get a degree, get an entry-level job” pathway entirely. Apprenticeships, project-based work, and building portfolios might become more valuable than traditional resumes.
But here’s my biggest concern: if companies stop hiring junior talent to boost short-term productivity, who’s going to run these places in 10-15 years? You can’t AI your way into institutional knowledge and leadership experience. That’s a long-term problem that today’s cost-cutting decisions are creating.
