According to Fortune, Bank of America Global Research says Warner Bros. Discovery is at the “epicenter” of a historic media shift, with Netflix, Paramount Skydance, and Comcast all potential bidders. Analysts, led by Jessica Reif Ehrlich, estimate a takeout value of about $30 per share for WBD, which was trading just above $24. Netflix’s specific interest is in WBD’s studio and streaming assets, a deal likely worth more than $70 billion. This would give Netflix immediate ownership of massive franchises like Harry Potter, DC Comics, and Game of Thrones. BofA argues this acquisition would let Netflix “kill three birds with one stone,” solidifying its dominance and effectively ending the streaming wars.
Netflix’s Franchise Moat Play
Here’s the thing: Netflix has always been the king of volume and algorithm-driven hits. But it’s never had the deep, decades-spanning “franchise moats” that Disney or Warner Bros. built. Think about it. You can’t just spin up a Harry Potter or a Batman universe overnight. It takes decades and billions in box office receipts. BofA’s point is brutally simple: why spend 20 years trying to build that, when you can just buy it for, you know, a cool $70+ billion? It’s a pivot from being a brilliant content distributor to becoming a legacy IP owner overnight. And that library isn’t just for streaming—it’s the key to theme parks, merch, games, all the revenue streams Netflix has barely scratched.
The Three Birds Would Fall
So, what are these three birds? The first is Warner Bros. Discovery itself, which would simply be absorbed. Its 3% share of U.S. streaming viewership (per Nielsen) would fold into Netflix’s 18%, creating a combined entity controlling over a fifth of the market. That’s a bigger slice than Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video combined. The second and third birds are Netflix’s competitors. BofA calls it an “existential” threat to Paramount and Comcast’s NBCU. Their streaming services, Paramount+ and Peacock, would suddenly be trying to compete with a behemoth that owns both the biggest streaming platform and one of the world’s best content libraries. For Comcast, which is already trying to spin off its cable networks and has a streaming service stuck in the U.S., this would be a nightmare scenario.
The Theater Wars And Other Wrinkles
An interesting side effect? It might finally force Netflix to play nice with movie theaters. Ted Sarandos has been famously stubborn about wide theatrical releases, preferring his boutique venues like the Paris Theater in NYC or The Egyptian in LA. But Warner Bros. has a major theatrical business. BofA thinks Netflix would continue distributing Warner films in theaters. We’re already seeing a tiny crack in Netflix’s armor with the planned Imax release for its Narnia adaptation. Owning a major studio would be a huge step toward a more traditional Hollywood model, whether Sarandos likes it or not. He’s called theaters “outmoded,” but $70 billion in new assets tends to change a strategy.
The Bidding War No One Is Talking About
Now, BofA’s report conveniently glosses over antitrust concerns, which would be massive. And it treats this as a pure financial strategy game. But look at the other players. Paramount Skydance, controlled by David Ellison (son of Oracle’s Larry Ellison), has been chasing WBD for a year. The Ellisons have serious political and tech clout—Larry was part of the group that took over U.S. TikTok operations. A Paramount-WBD combo would be a very different beast, more of a traditional studio consolidation. And Comcast might want WBD for “structural engineering,” maybe combining Peacock with Max. So, is Netflix really the frontrunner? Or is BofA just painting the most dramatic picture? One thing’s for sure: if Netflix actually pulls this off, the landscape changes forever. Everyone else is just competing for second place.
