According to PYMNTS.com, The Wall Street Journal reported on January 29 that OpenAI is laying the groundwork for a fourth-quarter initial public offering (IPO) and has started informal talks with Wall Street banks. The company, valued around $500 billion, is expanding its finance team, hiring chief accounting officer Ajmere Dale and corporate business finance officer Cynthia Gaylor to oversee investor relations. The timing is tied to a hoped-for reopening of the IPO market, with bankers eyeing 2026 as a potential blockbuster year. However, the report cautions that a year-end listing would be difficult given intense competition from companies like Google. OpenAI is also headed to trial in a lawsuit from co-founder Elon Musk, who is seeking up to $134 billion in damages.
The IPO Pressure Cooker
Here’s the thing: going public isn’t just about cashing in. It’s a complete transformation of how a company operates. For OpenAI, the pressure is coming from every direction. Execs are reportedly worried about rival Anthropic beating them to the public markets, and Anthropic itself has signaled it’s open to a listing this year too. That’s a race nobody really wins gracefully. And then there’s the sheer, staggering cost of this AI arms race. Both companies are burning billions annually on model training and compute. Anthropic thinks it can break even by 2028; OpenAI’s projection is 2030. That’s a long time to ask public market investors, who crave profitability, to be patient.
Altman’s “Annoying” Public Market Dance
Sam Altman’s quote to the Journal is telling, isn’t it? He said being a public CEO would be “really annoying” in some ways. He’s not wrong. You trade the freedom of private company secrecy for the relentless quarterly scrutiny of analysts and shareholders. Every product stumble, every competitive threat from Google or Anthropic, becomes a headline that moves your stock price. It seems like Altman is already preparing for this by delegating more to Fidji Simo, the former Instacart CEO now running OpenAI’s product and business teams. That’s a smart hedge: let a seasoned operator handle the grind while he focuses on the big, visionary bets.
The Billion-Dollar Obstacle Course
So, can they actually pull this off in Q4? The obstacles are massive. Beyond the Musk lawsuit—which is a wildcard that could spook investors—there’s the fundamental business model. Selling AI subscriptions and API credits is one thing, but is it enough to justify a half-trillion-dollar valuation when you’re still years from profitability? The company is trying to diversify, pushing into enterprise workspaces and chasing a mind-boggling $100+ billion funding round. But public markets are a different beast. They’ll want to see a path that’s clearer than “spend unprecedented amounts on compute and hope it pays off later.” Basically, OpenAI needs to prove it’s not just a brilliant research lab, but a durable, defensible business. And it needs to do it while its biggest competitors are trying to do the exact same thing.
